Shares of Formula One-parent company Liberty Media can go nearly 30% higher on the rising popularity of the auto racing sport, according to Morgan Stanley. Analyst Benjamin Swinburne named the media and entertainment stock one of his top overweight-rated ideas for 2023, saying it can outperform even as growing recessionary challenges are expected to challenge the broader industry. “F1 benefits from a highly contracted business model with minimal exposure to the consumer and durable revenue streams. Its primary revenue drivers (over 80% of revenues) are driven by contracted media rights, race promotion fees, and sponsorship contracts all with multi-year renewal cycles,” Swinburne wrote Monday. The analyst cited the growing popularity of Formula One in the U.S., which he expects will result in higher revenue growth over the long term. In 2023, there are three races slated in the U.S. in Austin, Las Vegas and Miami. “We expect adj. EBITDA (OpCo level) to CAGR midteens through ’25 as F1 realizes margin expansion under the terms of its current Concorde Agreement,” Swinburne wrote. To be sure, the analyst lowered his 2023 EBITDA estimates after the Chinese Grand Prix was cancelled because of the country’s Covid-19 policies, but he expects that the risk could be “skewed to the upside” should Formula One manage to replace the event on its calendar. The stock is down just 8% this year, outperforming the S & P 500’s more than 19% decline. The analyst’s $75 price target is 29% above where shares closed Friday. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
